📌 Election Betting, Jobless Benefits Fall, More

Election betting markets have surged, attracting millions of dollars in wagers as the presidential race remains too close to call.

A federal judge's ruling in September allowed election trading, leading to a significant increase in betting activity. Over $100 million was wagered on Kalshi alone.

New entrants like Interactive Brokers and Robinhood have joined established platforms, drawing attention from both campaigns and the media. Donald Trump and supporter Elon Musk have highlighted the rise in election betting, suggesting it is “more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.”

The Iowa Electronic Markets, run by Prof. Thomas Gruca, operates under strict regulations and oversees a tiny amount of trading. But over nine elections, it has predicted the popular vote within almost a percentage point. “This [presidenial election] is as close or closer than any we’ve ever seen — it’s a 50-50 race.”

The debate over election betting continues, with some states banning it and federal regulators proposing rules to bar political event trading. The watchdog group Better Markets warned that allowing such bets would "corrupt the integrity of our elections, trigger market manipulation, and victimize countless investors.”

Fewer Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week as layoffs remained historically healthy despite elevated interest rates.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claim applications fell by 12,000 to 216,000 for the week of Oct. 26. That’s fewer than the 227,000 analysts forecast.

The four-week average of weekly claims, which quiets some week-to-week fluctuations, fell by 2,250 to 236,500. Weekly applications for jobless benefits are considered a proxy for US layoffs.

During the first four months of 2024, applications for jobless benefits averaged just 213,000 a week before rising in May. They hit 250,000 in late July, supporting the notion that high interest rates were finally cooling a red-hot US job market.

Despite some signs of the labor market slowing, America’s employers added a surprisingly strong 254,000 jobs in September, easing some concerns about a weakening job market and suggesting that the pace of hiring is still solid enough to support a growing economy.

Compared with just before the pandemic, people spend nearly an hour less a day doing activities outside the home.

Researchers say the behavior, based on a survey of 34,000 Americans, is a lasting consequence of the pandemic. Their research reveals a drop of about 51 minutes a day on out-of-home activities since 2019 and almost 12 minutes less spent on daily travel, such as driving or taking public transportation.

The analysis is the first to look at out-of-home versus in-home time post-pandemic. The authors from Clemson University and UCLA have documented a trend toward less out-of-home time stretching back to at least 2003, but the pandemic and its aftermath have increased this shift into the home.

The paper's authors, who are urban planners, argue that less leaving-home activity calls for a rethink of many planning and transport policies.

Given the increase in working and shopping from home, their recommendations include repurposing office and retail real estate.

Anti-obesity drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy may have reduced patients undergoing metabolic bariatric surgery by 25.6%.

A study examining a large sample of privately insured patients with obesity found the use of the drugs more than doubled in 2022–2023, coinciding with fewer bariatric surgeries.

Using a national sample of medical insurance claims data from over 17 million privately insured adults, the researchers found a sharp increase in patients receiving glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, or GLP-1 RAs. Their use increased by 132.6% from the last six months of 2022 to the last six months of 2023.

A researcher notes that while GLP-1 RAs can effectively treat obesity and related conditions (such as diabetes), their use has been limited by high costs, limited supply, and gastrointestinal side effects that may prompt treatment cessation and subsequent weight regain.

The report co-author said, “Metabolic bariatric surgery and GLP-1 RAs are both effective interventions for patients with obesity, yet less than 6% of patients in our study received either form of treatment.” The authors encourage clinicians and policymakers to continue to monitor access to effective obesity treatment.

A report contends gun owners aren’t just using their firearms for protection against violence but also their “psychological selves.

Nick Buttrick, Assistant Professor of Psychology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, says: “Owning a gun helps them feel more in control of the world around them and more able to live meaningful, purposeful lives that connect to the people and communities they care for.

Gun ownership in the US is widespread — an estimated 40%+ of Americans own guns, regardless of race, class and political ideology. American gun owners feel safer and more in control with their firearms, contrasting with gun owners in other developed countries.

Buttrick examined the psychological impact of gun ownership by surveying over 150 gun owners and over 100 non-gun owners. Participants were texted twice daily for two weeks about their feelings and activities. Gun owners were split into two groups: one was reminded of their firearms, while the other wasn't.

When reminded, gun owners felt safer, in control, and found life more meaningful. However, when their guns were accessible, they reported increased vigilance and anxiety, even in non-threatening settings like watching TV.

Buttrick said he is exploring whether stressing other parts of gun ownership may help owners move beyond a negative spiral. He said further research will explore “who gun owners feel they are responsible for” and the “kinds of actions they think responsible owners take.”

Dog-like robots could one day assist in search and rescue, thanks to AI and computer vision that help them zero in on objects.

Researchers developed a method called 'Clio' that enables robots to map scenes rapidly and identify relevant objects using on-body cameras and voice instructions.

Clio compresses information, allowing neural networks to focus only on task-relevant segments. The system was demonstrated using a Boston Dynamics Spot robot, which completed tasks by generating virtual maps of relevant objects in real time.

Clio combines large language models and computer vision to achieve high granularity in object identification for specific tasks. The goal is for AI-powered robots to make intuitive and discriminative task-centric decisions in real time rather than trying to process an entire scene or environment first.

A researcher said, “We're still giving Clio tasks that are somewhat specific, like 'find deck of cards.’ For search and rescue, you need to give it more high-level tasks, like 'find survivors' or 'get power back on.’" That will require “a more human-level understanding of how to accomplish more complex tasks,” the researcher said.

A museum curator uncovered an unknown waltz written in the hand of composer Frédéric Chopin.

Found in New York City’s Morgan Library & Museum’s Satz Collection, the manuscript music sheet consists of 24 notated measures that the composer asks the pianist to repeat once in their entirety.

A Morgan Library & Museum spokesperson said: “The beginning of the piece is most remarkable — several moody, dissonant measures culminate in a loud outburst before a melancholy melody begins. None of his known waltzes start this way, making this one even more intriguing.”

The manuscript is slightly larger than an index card (about 4 x 5 inches). Based on other similarly sized manuscripts by Chopin, it is assumed that it was meant as a gift. Chopin usually signed manuscripts that were gifts, but this one is unsigned, suggesting that he changed his mind and withheld it.

“To hear this work for the first time will be an exciting moment for everyone in the world of classical piano,” said Robinson McClellan, the library’s associate curator of music manuscripts and printed music.