Is a US recession on the horizon amid Trump’s tariffs? | Jeffrey Frankel

An inverted yield curve, when the long-term interest rate falls to or below the short-term rate, is commonly considered to be a predictor of recession.

Consumer confidence is a more direct indicator particularly for predicting household demand.

Two long-established measures of consumer confidence, conducted by the University of Michigan and the Conference Board, showed sharp declines in March when Donald Trump’s tariff threats began to materialise.

Even while the recession is under way, we do not know for sure that this is what we are experiencing.

The official arbiter of US recessions is the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee.

Only when all the data is in typically a year or so after the fact does the committee declare a turning point.