One year on from 7 October, our panel considers: what next for the Middle East?

We may have reached a point beyond which the international order changes for ever, says Fawaz Gerges .

Gerges: Israel ’s year-long war in Gaza has led to humanitarian catastrophe and the heightened risk of an all-out regional war.

The consequences of the growing north-south polarisation will probably have transformative effects on international politics for generations.

Israel is already fighting on multiple fronts from Lebanon to Yemen to Iran to distract from the quagmire of Gaza and regain internal legitimacy.

Expanding the war is also a way to obscure the colonial nature of the conflict against the Palestinians , by turning it into a civilisational or religious confrontation against Iran .

Negotiations between Israel and Hamas that were ongoing until the last round ended in August 2024 have consistently failed due to the maximalist goals of Netanyahu and Sinwar.

After 12 months , with little pressure on them and few incentives to change tack, the two sides are still far apart.

Israel 's expanded operations in Lebanon aimed at dismantling Hezbollah are risking a broader multi-front war.