How bad a future do ML researchers expect? - EA Forum

Survey of machine learning researchers puts 31% of their credence on AI making the world markedly worse in 2022.

The most notable change to me is the new big black bar of doom at the end: people who think extremely bad outcomes are at least 50% have gone from 3% of the population to 9% in six years.

There's no reason for the rest of us to trust individual ML researchers' assessments of which work is dangerous, versus which is safe.

Maybe it would be better if policy makers shut AI research down immediately instead of trying to make reforms and regulations to soften its impact? Maybe this information (that AI researchers themselves are increasingly pessimistic about the outcome) could sway public opinion enough to that point?.