Unveiling our 2025 NFL season projections: Predicting the top teams and Super Bowl favorites

The Eagles have a 12% chance to win the Super Bowl according to ESPN 's Football Power Index.

The NFL 's 2025 oligarchy consists of a clear top tier: the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens , Lions and Bills .

There's a 1.8 -point drop-off between the No. 5 -ranked Bills and the 6 -ranked Commanders.

The 49ers narrowly beat the Rams in the NFC West by 36% to win the division in 2025 .

Buffalo Bills have a 65% chance to win their AFC East division by a hefty margin.

The Bengals are the fourth -most likely playoff team in the AFC after missing the playoffs the past two seasons .

The Browns are the most likely team to end the season holding the No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft.

Much of that is due to a quarterback room comprised of Joe Flacco , Kenny Pickett , Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders and a harder-than-average schedule. The Giants are rated slightly above the Browns in the FPI and have the second -highest chance to earn the No. 1 pick at 12% , due to facing the league's most difficult schedule. The Titans , Saints and Jets follow with 11% , 10% and 10% chances, respectively..