2024 YR4 Asteroid Near-Earth Impact

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Earth Impact Risk Summary

The Weather Network

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Science

Impact odds continue to rise for 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 YR4

Summary

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Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 3.1 per cent chance of impact on December 22, 2032 .

NASA and the ESA have increased the odds of a close encounter with the asteroid to 2.2 per cent .

With new observations added up until February 18 , the odds have gone up again.

The asteroid's closest approach distance on that day is now just over 580,000 km .

Asteroid 2024 YR4's impact probability reached 3% in December 2004 , the highest ever recorded for a significantly large asteroid.

The most likely scenario for this impact is that it would hit somewhere over water, whether that's the Pacific, Atlantic , or Indian Ocean .

Another predicted 'close' approach, at a distance of roughly 8 million kilometres in December of 2028 , will likely help refine the object's orbit even further.

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