Will Russia's economy go into recession? Here's what to expect in the coming year

Russia faces serious dilemmas in the coming year after three years of war.

The resilience of the Russian economy was built on three foundations: deep pre-war reserves, stable revenue from oil and gas sales and limiting impact of the war on the civilian economy.

Real wage growth is expected to fall to 3.1% in 2025 from the projected 8% this year , according to the Central Bank’s survey of economists.

Russia will begin to face a more acute shortage of forces in the second half of 2025 , military analyst Michael Kofman said.

Oil and gas revenues will not fall below the 2023 figure, energy policy analyst Kirill Rodionov said.

The price of Russian oil is expected to remain at a moderate level due to stable supply and uncertainty around future demand.

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