Trump Wins Due to Low Turnout

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Wisconsin voters

NBC News

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Weak turnout in key cities hurt Harris in the 'blue wall' states

Summary

Nutrition label

74% Informative

A new analysis of precinct-level data by the NBC News Decision Desk shows the extent to which President-elect Donald Trump ’s wins in Michigan , Wisconsin , and Pennsylvania were driven by weak turnout in heavily Democratic cities.

The largest county in each state — Wayne County , Michigan , home of Detroit ; Philadelphia County , Pennsylvania ; and Milwaukee County , Wisconsin — had either the worst or second -worst shift in votes cast of any county in their state.

These three underperforming counties and their cities fueled the Democratic electoral success in the 2020 and 2022 elections.

Dane County , on the other hand, has a population that is about 84% non-Hispanic white. Furthermore, about a quarter of Milwaukee ’s residents have a college degree, compared to over half of people in Dane County . This difference is notable, given that Wisconsin voters with a college degree in the NBC News Exit Poll were one of the only demographic groups in which Harris improved on Joe Biden’s 2020 vote results..