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accurate pollingABC News
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88% Informative
Polls missed the margin of the election by just 2.94 percentage points in the last three weeks of the campaign.
In 2024 , state-level polling error in 2024 is actually the lowest it's been in at least 25 years .
Polls are also important for the reporting we do here at 538 , which is rooted in data.
Aaron Carroll : Polls overestimated support for Harris by an average of 2.7 points on margin in competitive states.
Carroll: But it's higher than the bias in the 2000 , 2004 , 2008 and 2012 elections.
He says the pattern in the industry is still the same: Pollsters are having a hard time reaching the types of people who support Trump .
Carroll says it's remarkable that polls are as accurate as they are.
VR Score
94
Informative language
97
Neutral language
37
Article tone
informal
Language
English
Language complexity
49
Offensive language
not offensive
Hate speech
not hateful
Attention-grabbing headline
not detected
Known propaganda techniques
not detected
Time-value
short-lived
External references
18
Source diversity
11
Affiliate links
no affiliate links