Trump Wins 2024 Election

This is a news story, published by Washington Examiner, that relates primarily to Polymarket news.

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Electoral College victory

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closest presidential election race

Washington Examiner

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Betting markets got it right and are not to be scoffed at - Washington Examiner

Summary

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84% Informative

Well over $3 billion was bet on the 2024 presidential race, including over $2.6 billion on Polymarket alone.

The bettors predicted a Trump victory for 30 consecutive days going into the election, giving him a 28.9 -point lead a week ago .

Election markets tend to favor Democrats in general, but less so than the polls or predictive models such as FiveThirtyEight. They tend to be more “surprised” when a Republican candidate wins, making it no surprise that Trump outperformed the betting odds in 2024 .

Trump outperformed the odds and the polls en route to victory in the Electoral College and popular vote.

History shows that betting odds are efficient at predicting a candidate’s chance of winning an election.

Between 2016 and 2022 , ElectionBettingOdds tracked 807 different candidates’ chances across a number of elections.

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formal

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English

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