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many pollstersScientific American
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74% Informative
Polls are only as good as their sample: the wider, more representative swath of the public that responds to polling calls, the better the data.
People who respond to polls are the odd ones out, and this self-selection can significantly bias the results in unknowable but profound ways.
In 2016 , 88 percent of national polls overstated Hillary Clinton’s support because they largely missed support for Trump from non-college-educated white voters.
Pollsters are “leaning hard” into recall-vote weighting this time around.
Some pollsters are betting that this year ’s election will look more like those midterms and are weighting their data accordingly.
The electorate can also change a lot in four years : voters die, a crop of new ones turn 18 and become eligible to vote, and many move to different states.
A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close.
The winner could still take the presidency with a significant margin in the electoral college.
If the polls underestimate Trump ’s support again and he loses, they will likely be used to support claims of election fraud, Karpf says.
VR Score
81
Informative language
86
Neutral language
40
Article tone
informal
Language
English
Language complexity
45
Offensive language
not offensive
Hate speech
not hateful
Attention-grabbing headline
detected
Known propaganda techniques
not detected
Time-value
short-lived
External references
5
Affiliate links
no affiliate links