The Democratic Theory of Winning With Less

Julian Zelizer : In 2024 , Democrats need to run up a big lead in popular vote to win Electoral College majority.

But in 2024 , that may no longer be true, he says.

He says the distinctive dynamics of the 2024 campaign could allow Kamala Harris to eke out an Electoral College win even if Donald Trump runs better in the national popular vote this time than during his previous two campaigns.

Zelizer says it could allow Harris to scrape a win by sweeping the Rust Belt battlegrounds of Michigan , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin .

In 2020 , white people cast about four-fifths of the vote in Michigan and Pennsylvania , and roughly nine-tenths of it in Wisconsin .

The prospect that she could hold the former Blue Wall states even while slipping nationally challenges conventional wisdom that Democrats must amass a significant lead in the national popular vote to secure enough states to win the electoral vote.

Since 2020 , white voters without a college degree have declined as a share of eligible voters in Michigan and Wisconsin .

In Pennsylvania , the share of minority voters grew; in Pennsylvania , minorities grew.

A significant concern for Democratic strategists is whether the party has plausibly declined since 2020 only among voters of color, without suffering material losses among white voters.