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Senate raceABC News
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84% Informative
538 is unveiling its forecast for the 2024 U.S. Senate elections.
It gives Republicans an 87-in-100 chance of winning a majority.
The chance that Democrats hold their majority is 13 in 100 : about the same as rolling a die and getting a one.
Democrats , simply put, are facing a terrible map: They are defending five seats in tight presidential battleground states.
In Wisconsin , Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin has a 78-in-100 chance of beating Republican investor Eric Hovde .
Democrats still lead in each of these three seats, but it would take only a normal-sized polling error for Republicans to win one of these contests.
By contrast, Democrats don’t have many opportunities to flip Republican -held seats, and where they do, they are underdogs.
VR Score
89
Informative language
90
Neutral language
35
Article tone
formal
Language
English
Language complexity
47
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Attention-grabbing headline
not detected
Known propaganda techniques
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Time-value
short-lived
External references
27
Source diversity
7
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