Allan Lichtman Predicts Elections

This is a news story, published by The Atlantic, that relates primarily to David Gergen news.

David Gergen news

For more David Gergen news, you can click here:

more David Gergen news

News about Us campaigns & elections

For more Us campaigns & elections news, you can click here:

more Us campaigns & elections news

The Atlantic news

For more news from The Atlantic, you can click here:

more news from The Atlantic

About the Otherweb

Otherweb, Inc is a public benefit corporation, dedicated to improving the quality of news people consume. We are non-partisan, junk-free, and ad-free. We use artificial intelligence (AI) to remove junk from your news feed, and allow you to select the best politics news, business news, entertainment news, and much more. If you like this article about Us campaigns & elections, you might also like this article about

Lichtman

. We are dedicated to bringing you the highest-quality news, junk-free and ad-free, about your favorite topics. Please come every day to read the latest prominent election modeler news, Allan Lichtman news, news about Us campaigns & elections, and other high-quality news about any topic that interests you. We are working hard to create the best news aggregator on the web, and to put you in control of your news feed - whether you choose to read the latest news through our website, our news app, or our daily newsletter - all free!

Professor Lichtman

The Atlantic

•

Allan Lichtman is known for correctly predicting the winner of all but one presidential election since 1984

Summary

Nutrition label

72% Informative

Allan Lichtman is known for correctly predicting the victor of all but one presidential election since 1984 .

He bases his predictions on a set of 13 true-or-false questions, which he calls “keys” and which in 2016 signaled a Trump victory when the polls said otherwise.

David Gergen : If he is wrong about how elections work, how can he be so good at foretelling outcomes?.

David Gergen : The keys must be “turned” consistently from election to election without regard to polls.

Gergen says Lichtman ’s most celebrated feat of foresight by far, the gutsy call that supposedly sets his keys apart from mere polls was his 2016 prediction.

He says arguments against the keys fail because they suggest that the keys are in some way wrong, which they plainly are not.

David Gergen : By Lichtman ’s own account, the keys predict the popular-vote winner, not the state-by-state results.

Gergen says the gap did not become apparent until the results of the 2016 election were known.

He says he changed his methodology after the election to account for a change that hadn’t happened yet.

VR Score

Informative language

Neutral language

Article tone

informal

Language

English

Language complexity