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Telegraph

Telegraph

Europe should sincerely hope the markets are right about Iran

Telegraph
Summary
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70% Informative

Oil prices have risen 6pc since Iran 's attack on Israel , taking it to heights not seen since August .

The Middle East looks like a tinderbox, and the Middle East is a 'tinderbox' Oil prices are highly inelastic: because nobody can easily change course, huge price movements are needed to bring supply and demand back in line.

A cessation of Iranian exports could give a hefty price shock well into double digits.

A doubling of oil prices would knock off somewhere between 1-2pc of euro area GDP.

That sort of rise is well within the range of possibilities for a large regional conflict damaging exports from Saudi Arabia and the UAE .

It would also tip the eurozone from weak growth of 1pc to stagnation or recession.