Thomas Miller Predicts 2024 Election

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Miller

Fortune

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Kamala Harris holds a 66 electoral vote lead over Donald Trump, calculates prominent data scientist

Summary

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67% Informative

Thomas Miller has crafted a model for forecasting the 2024 presidential election that, he says, is far more reliable than the polling that’s constantly cited in the media as the best guide to the outcome on November 5 .

The Northwestern University professor deploys a framework based on the betting odds set by folks wagering their dollars not on the candidate they intend to vote for, but the one they expect to win.

Miller 's model centers on the “prices” posted on America 's most active political betting site, PredictIT.

The campaign’s turning point was Trump 's appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists convention on July 31 , when he suggested that Harris had mislead voters about her race.

The day following the NABJ event, Harris bolted into the lead, and she's stayed in front ever since.

The electoral numbers show that Harris is, as of now, on track to mostly sweep the swing states.

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semi-formal

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English

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