How fragile the U.S. economic recovery is—and portend worse to come

Since the pandemic, ordinary Americans ’ perceptions of the economy have confounded liberal-leaning experts and commentators, who have hailed the US recovery as the envy of the industrialized world.

But there are signs that domestic manufacturing is on the cusp of a full-blown sectoral recession.

The downturn, however, is emblematic of the recovery’s frustrating unevenness, says Julian Zelizer .

A similar, overlooked downturn late in President Obama 's second term likely contributed to Hillary Clinton’s defeat in Pennsylvania , Michigan , and Wisconsin in the 2016 election.

Clinton 's campaign's indifference to the industrial Midwest cemented the view among many working-class whites that today 's Democrats have abandoned their New Deal roots.

Progressives certainly have tactical reasons to highlight the economy's upsides, particularly when Team Trump is doubling down on ill-explained tariffs.

Though headline-grabbing layoffs have been mostly concentrated in tech and media, hiring has started to cool more generally.

A much-expected rate cut by the Fed could help arrest the downturn, though at this stage it is unlikely to redound strongly to Democrats ’ electoral benefit.

Still, the path toward a post-neoliberal future needs far more than a slightly dovish turn in monetary policy.