"Swing State Polls Show Close Race"
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Wisconsin polling averagesCenter for Politics – Politics is a good thing
•Polling Error in 2016-2020: Look Out for Wisconsin - Sabato's Crystal Ball
86% Informative
Swing state polls show an incredibly close race in our 7 Toss-up presidential states right now.
The septet of Arizona , Georgia , Michigan , Nevada , North Carolina , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin are all achingly close.
Final polling did generally overstate Democrats in both the 2016 and 2020 elections in these states, with Wisconsin standing out.
Michigan , Pennsylvania , and Wisconsin had polls that were too Democratic -leaning compared to the final result in each year .
That was particularly true in Wisconsin , which had an error of 7 points in both elections.
We have no idea whether the polls will be biased consistently one way or the other in 2024 .
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