logo
welcome
Guardian

Guardian

Threat to stock markets comes from China and Middle East, not the US | Larry Elliott

Guardian
Summary
Nutrition label

74% Informative

Financial markets are right to think there is a threat lurking out there but they are wrong to think the biggest danger is a recession in the US .

To be sure, the US economy is slowing down, but it is not remotely close to recession.

China ’s problems are structural and have big implications for the rest of the world.

China is already trying to divert exports through third countries in order to avoid western tariffs but has so far resisted the temptation to introduce tit-for-tat measures of its own. A short-term risk is that the west’s protectionist actions lead to higher prices, higher inflation and higher interest rates. A longer-term risk is of the west adding to the global glut goods by ramping up its own production. In that event, the rate of profit would fall and global capitalism would face of a crisis of its own making just as Karl Marx predicted..