The Sahm rule and the economy's 'statistical regularities'

The "Sahm Rule" recession indicator shows recession started when unemployment rate rose 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell : "It's not like an economic rule, where it's telling you something must happen" The economy is complex with countless numbers of moving parts, and sometimes some of those parts will be behaving so abnormally that time-tested indicators will break down.

U.S. employers added 114,000 jobs in July , the 43rd straight month of gains.

Total payroll employment is at a record 158.7 million jobs, up 6.4 million from the prepandemic high.

Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month , down from the 0.3% pace in June .

Layoffs remain depressed, but hiring remains firm.

Confidence increased in July , but not enough to break free of narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years .

Consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, but they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and interest rates, and uncertainty about the future.

Consumers are seeing softer labor market conditions and historically this has coincided with a rising unemployment rate.