The threat of a bird flu pandemic is rising but experts say the risk remains low. Are they right?

The risk of H5N1 becoming a significant threat to humans is now at level four out of seven .

The UK Health Security Agency is primed to “initiate an appropriate public health response should it be needed” The UKHSA puts the likelihood of a human pandemic at somewhere between one-in-ten and one in three barely long odds.

Tests in mice have already shown that the virus in raw milk can infect animals that drink it.

Since April 2024 , 13 human cases of avian influenza have been reported across the US four of them associated with exposure to dairy cows and nine linked to infected poultry.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is also testing dozens of other farm workers it suspects have contracted the virus.

It is still not clear how the virus is spreading between animals.

There is a large amount of uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of the current US H5N1.

But scientists the Telegraph spoke to all said they believed the risk of a major pandemic developing in the near future was low.

The next level of risk in the UKHSA ’s assessment would be reached when the virus shows itself capable of spreading between people.