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reliable recession forecasting toolThe Motley Fool
•83% Informative
The Treasury yield curve has been a remarkably accurate recession forecasting tool for more than five decades .
The current yield curve inversion is the longest on record, meaning the economy is "overdue" for a recession.
Should that warning prove accurate, a recession would almost certainly lead to a stock market crash.
The S&P 500 has typically crashed during recessions, but there is a silver lining.
The S&P 500 has declined by a median of 35% during recessions since 1969 .
The index currently trades 4% below its record high, so the implied downside would be 31% if a recession started tomorrow .
Even if the stock market does crash, the index has historically rebounded before recessions have ended.
In that sense, the next stock market crash could actually be a tremendous buying opportunity.
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