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official recessionCNBC
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83% Informative
Wall Street's favorite recession signal started flashing red in 2022 and hasn't stopped.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has been lower than most of its shorter-dated counterparts over the period.
An inverted curve has signaled nearly every U.S. recession going back to the 1950s .
"So far, yeah, it's been a bald-faced liar," Mark Zandi , chief economist at Moody's Analytics , said half -jokingly.
In inverted curves can contribute to a recession as well as signal that one is occurring.
The Fed has been on hold for a year , with its benchmark rate at a 23-year high.
But the trend raises the stakes for the Fed , as much of that financing is about to come due.
VR Score
90
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