Batteries: how cheap can they get?

Batteries have been central to my research for over fifteen years , but their impact continues to surprise me.

NMC battery cells (lithium batteries with a cathode from nickel, manganese and cobalt) can be bought for less than $100 /kWh and the somewhat heavier lithium iron phosphate cells that are better in every way than those first cells can be had for just $47/ k Wh.

If we started with $ 80 /kWh in 2023 and subtracted 25% eight times in a row, the end result would be battery cells costing just $8 per kWh in 2030 .

But wait! This is where method number number 2 comes in. I predict that long before 2030 we will have cheap batteries for long.

The global grid needs something akin to the OSI model of the Internet, that will allow everybody worldwide to develop hardware solutions that are interoperable with each other.

It would be similar to the W3C standards that make sure you can read this in your browser, but specifically for energy.

The grid will become cheaper, more resilient, and able to deal with massive amounts of solar and wind.