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Labour victorySurvation | Surveying the Nation
•88% Informative
Survation MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997 .
Predictions come from a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model.
The model’s implied vote share indicates that Labour will win around 42% of the vote, just under twenty percentage points ahead of the Conservative party .
Figure 1 shows historical values of the Gallagher index for elections in Great Britain .
Figure 2 expands that chart to show a range of possible outcomes for the 2024 election.
If our MRP model is even close to being accurate, Britain is about to become a world leader in electoral disproportionality.
Predictions are based on a model of voting behaviour where there are nine possible outcomes.
Survation conducted MRP analysis of 34,558 adults aged 18+ in Great Britain on their voting intentions.
Only in 3 percent of simulations did Labour seat tally turn out to be exactly 484 .
We think that the most likely number of seats won by Labour is 484 , but the chances of us getting this right are pretty low.
VR Score
94
Informative language
97
Neutral language
56
Article tone
semi-formal
Language
English
Language complexity
50
Offensive language
not offensive
Hate speech
not hateful
Attention-grabbing headline
not detected
Known propaganda techniques
not detected
Time-value
medium-lived
External references
5
Affiliate links
no affiliate links