This is a Andreas Graefe news story, published by Elections Etc, that relates primarily to PollyVote news.
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other election forecastsElections Etc
•88% Informative
Combined Forecast is inspired by the PollyVote site and the work of Andreas Graefe .
The idea is to combine different kinds of forecasts of an election in the hope that the average of the forecasts will tend to be better than any particular method.
Polls, betting markets and models all performed similarly well on average across the campaign.
2019 YouGov MRP model did not do so well partly because it estimated that the Conservatives would slightly underperform, and Labour overperform.
It should have been the other way round.
But more importantly, along with the average of the polls in 2019 , the model estimated a 9 point lead for Conservatives instead of a 12 point lead.
VR Score
94
Informative language
97
Neutral language
34
Article tone
formal
Language
English
Language complexity
58
Offensive language
not offensive
Hate speech
not hateful
Attention-grabbing headline
not detected
Known propaganda techniques
not detected
Time-value
medium-lived
External references
8
Source diversity
7
Affiliate links
no affiliate links