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Tory voteElections Etc
•84% Informative
Traditional predictions suggest Conservatives will win just around 190 seats at general election.
Predictions of proportional change have come unstuck in the past by predicting proportional change.
The efficacy of uniform change projections was so well established that they became the basis of the swingometer for election night programmes.
In the graph below each grey circle represents a constituency.
The blue line is a curvilinear smoother showing the average pattern of change with respect to prior strength.
Liberal Democrats went from 23.6% to 8.1% of the GB vote; a loss of 65.7% of their 2010 vote.
Conservatives in 1906 went from majority government with 169 seats in 1988 to winning just 2 seats in 1993 .
The Liberal Landslide of 1906 was the Conservatives ’ lowest ever number of seats, going back to 1832 .
The average incumbency bonus of 10.8 points for Lib Dem MPs in 2015 ensured that the party won the same number of seats as they would have done under uniform change.
Proportional change across all seats would have left the Lib Dems without any seats.
VR Score
92
Informative language
96
Neutral language
47
Article tone
semi-formal
Language
English
Language complexity
42
Offensive language
not offensive
Hate speech
not hateful
Attention-grabbing headline
not detected
Known propaganda techniques
not detected
Time-value
short-lived
External references
2
Source diversity
2
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