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possible Electoral College outcomesABC News
•84% Informative
538 published its official forecast for the 2024 presidential election.
The forecast shows President Joe Biden locked in a practically tied race with former President Donald Trump .
The model builds on our general election polling averages by asking not just what our best guess is about who is leading the presidential race today , but what range of outcomes are possible.
David Gergen : Forecast models serve a greater journalistic purpose than a focus on prediction gives them credit for.
He says forecasting is an exercise in quantifying the reliability of various indicators of public opinion.
Gergen says the real value of our work is the statistical analysis of reliability of the numbers you are bound to see plastered all over print news media, social media and television over the next five months .
He writes: In 2020 , polls performed worse than in any election since 1980 ; a similar miss this year would be statistically surprising.
VR Score
91
Informative language
93
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49
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