Immigration, not the economy, is key to Tory election success

National Institute for Economic and Social Research estimates GDP fell 0.1pc in final quarter of 2023 .

We won’t know for sure until official GDP numbers land on Thursday morning .

Rishi Sunak’s beleaguered Conservative Party faces awkward by-elections in Kingswood and Wellingborough.

Labour is already odds-on to win both contests in each case overturning a sizeable Tory majority.

Net immigration hit 745,000 in 2022 the population of Leeds in a single year .

Illegal immigration is also soaring, with unlawful Channel crossings higher last month than in January 2023 .

YouGov polling suggests concerns over immigration and asylum are now by far the most important issue.