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Federal Reserve policymakers’ updated forecasts for their benchmark interest rate are looming as a key potential decider for a US Treasuries market at risk of a third straight year of losses.
The two key questions for the dot plot are whether policymakers retain expectations for one more 25 basis-point rate hike by year-end , and how much easing are penciling in for 2024 .
“The market has a strong view that 3.5% is the new floor,” said John Bellows , portfolio manager at Western Asset Management . That suggests, over time, investors “only see the Fed eventually cutting down to 3.5% .” --With assistance from Steve Matthews . Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek 2023 Bloomberg L.P ..
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95
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