The Hill
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Several recent polls have shown Republican Tim Sheehy leading Sen. Jon Tester by a few points.
The race is still expected to be tight, but multiple election forecasters have shifted their ratings of the contest from toss-up to leaning Republican .
The election seems to hinge on whether the race can be centered on local issues, as Tester has sought to make it, or nationalized.
Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright said Tester can still successfully run as a Montanan away from the national environment.
Sheehy has faced criticism over some stories he has told about his past, including one in which he gave inconsistent explanations about how he received a gunshot wound and another about the success of his company.